Behind the Mask

Here are some notes of interest for fantasy goaltending heading into the weekend:

Hot Flashes

As we enter the cold winter months, here’s a look at some players that are starting to heat up in the month of December:

Nathan Horton, Florida - when Olli Jokinen was traded from Florida to Phoenix in the summer of 2008, the Panthers expected that Nathan Horton would step up and fill the void created by Jokinen’s departure. Horton certainly seemed to possess all the tools to be a solid player moving forward, but ended up being a large disappointment that season, netting only 45 points in 67 games. One year later however, and the former 3rd overall pick seems to have adjusted to the pressure of being Florida’s top dog. Thus far, Horton has 22 points in 26 games, and has points in nine of his past ten games, while adding 28 PIM and a plus-3 rating. Despite the fact that he’s only scored seven goals, we can certainly see much upside in his goal totals as he possesses a career 15.1 shooting percentage, and has never been below 12.7%, which is remarkable considering that many of the elite goal scorers (eg. Heatley, Kovalchuk, Gaborik) are in the 15% range as well. As an added bonus, he has dual eligibility at Center and Right Wing.

Maxim Afinogenov, Atlanta - next to Alex Kovalev, Maxim Afinogenov is, historically, one of the most talented underachievers in the league. Despite being gifted with tremendous speed and stickhandling skills, the lack of consistency has killed his fantasy value in recent years. This year however, he seems to be having a rebirth, playing alongside fellow countrymen Nik Antropov and Ilya Kovalchuk. He’s got 25 points in 24 games thus far and has been the 2nd best fantasy player in the past month: 8 G, 10 A, plus-12, 12 PIM, 5 PPP and 1 GWG. If there is one knock to Afinogenov’s hot start though, it’s the fact that he has a tendency to get hurt – in the past three years he has missed an average of 29 games a year. Keep that in the back of your mind if trade offers come your way, but for the time being, Afinogenov seems poised to deliver a top 25 performance for the remainder of the year.

St. Louis Blues: - despite a terrible start to the season, the St.Louis Blues are starting to show signs of breaking out. Goaltender Chris Mason posted a 1.97 GAA and a .932 SV% in the month of November, and defenseman Erik Johnson has been the fourth best fantasy-defenseman in the league over the past month, with 11 points in his past 13 games. Even Brad Boyes and David Backes are strating to turn things around, just one week after being nominated for our Aki Berg Fantasy Award, for lame duck players: Boyes has four points in the past five games, and Backes has six in his past four, with an impressive 30 PIM to go along. The window for acquiring some of these players is rapidly closing however, so if you plan on making a move, do so quickly.

Ryan Malone, Tampa Bay - despite my earlier posting that Malone was poised to fall back to Earth after his hot start, the fact remains that he is currently the ninth-best left-winger in the league according to Yahoo!’s ratings. He is fourth in the league in goals scored, and second, behind Rich Peverley, for the most game-winning goals, with four. So is he the real deal or not? I still maintain my position that Malone is overachieving, and that you would be better off trading him while his value is high. In fact, you may want to look to Ovechkin and/or Smyth owners for a potential trade, as both of those left wingers are either out (Smyth) or potentially out (Ovechkin: knee injury and likely suspension following his hit on Tim Gleason Monday night) for a period of time. Whether or not this is a foreshadow of things to come, or simply a tough stretch of games, Malone has just two points in his past six games, so take that into consideration.

R.J Umberger, Columbus - Although I don’t expect Umberger to continue posting these numbers, he has been very productive over the past month: 12 points, a plus-3 rating and 2 GWG in his last 14 games. Four of those points did come in his most recent game against St.Louis however, in which he notched a hat trick, inflating his statistics somewhat. Nevertheless, considering that Umberger went undrafted in the vast majority of leagues, he’s delivering a decent performance overall, and would be a third center candidate in 12-14 team leagues.

Sean Avery, New York Rangers - following his trade from the Kings to the Rangers in the 2006-2007 season, Avery posted one of the best fantasy lines in the league for the remainder of that year: 20 points, a plus-11 rating and 58 PIM in just 29 games. Although he hasn’t been the same player this year, he is starting to show signs of regaining some of that value. He has five points (2 on the PP) in the past seven games to go along with 25 PIM, and more importantly, finds himself skating on a line with Marian Gaborik and Vinny Prospal, presumably as a bodyguard to the fragile Gaborik. If the current trend continues, it’s almost certain that Avery will be a big benefactor and could be very valuable to your team moving forward.

Quarter Pole NHL Fantasy Awards

Fantasy Norris Trophy

3. David Clarkson, New Jersey – With 350 PIM in his first two years in the league, Clarkson was classified by many as a bonafide goon. This year however, Clarkson has surprised everyone with his scoring touch, having posted 37 PIM combined with an impressive 15 points, 6 PPP and two game-winners in his first 21 games. He’s a capable scorer, having totalled 32 points last year, and is poised for a career year while skating on a line with Patrik Elias. Look for a 50 point season out of the rugged young winger, with 150+ PIM.

Aki Berg Fantasy Award

What Goes Up…

As the old adage goes, what goes up, must come down. It’s an unfortunate reality and one that can be perplexing for fantasy owners, especially at the start of a new season. Players very often will get off to uncharacteristically hot starts, posing a classic dilemma for their fantasy owners: is this guy for real, or will he eventually come crashing back down to Earth? A classic example of this was last year’s version of the Rangers’ Brandon Dubinsky, who started the first 13 games of the season with 12 points, 21 PIM, 4 PPP and 3 GWG. For the month of October, Dubinsky was on top of the fantasy world, and owners were scrambling to pick up the newest hot young talent. Come November however, Dubinsky’s performance tanked – he scored 5 points or less in all but one month for the rest of the year, ending up with a paltry 41 points in 82 games. Those who saw past Dubinsky’s hot start were able to take advantage by trading him away while his stock was still high, perhaps netting a 2nd or 3rd line defenseman in return.

In the 2009-2010 fantasy year, there are several players who have started the season in Dubinsky-esque fashion, but are starting to show signs of cracking as we approach the quarter mark of the season. Here’s a list of who’s the real deal and who you should be looking to trade away:

Dustin Penner, Edmonton – as discussed in a previous column, Penner is a career 50-point player, at best. He started this season extremely hot, posting 19 points in his first 13 games, but has since fallen back to Earth, scoring only four points in eight games. That translates into a 0.5 points-per-game pace, which is roughly in par with his career average, and with what you can expect from him going forward. His numbers are still strong enough to entice a trade with another owner though, so act quickly before the goose-eggs pile up on this guy. One potential trade avenue might even be to try lure the oft-injured Simon Gagne from a disgruntled owner. The upside on Gagne is much bigger than Penner’s, and even though Gagne is injured, you can stash him on your IR and pick up a Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov, Nik Antropov or even Antoine Vermette in the meantime to fill in.

Michael Del Zotto, New York Rangers – congrats if you were sharp enough to catch this guy early on. Del Zotto is a very gifted 19 year-old rookie defenseman who was selected 20th overall in 2008 by the New York Rangers. Del Zotto has excelled at every level he’s played in, having consistently averaged nearly a point per game in the minors, and every indication is that he has a promising NHL career ahead of him. He has 15 points in 20 games with the blue-shirts, and mans the point on the first power play unit, a rarity for rookies – in fact ten of his fifteen points have come on the power play. For the most part, Del Zotto went undrafted in the majority of fantasy pools, which means that he’s likely filling in your roster as a third or fourth defenseman. He’ll have some growing pains to be sure, but a 40-45 point season doesn’t seem too unrealistic for the young blueliner, which, especially in deeper leagues, is a real bonus coming from the depths of your back end. Hold on to this guy, unless someone is willing to overpay.

Ryan Smyth, Los Angeles – this is a tricky one. Smyth has shown flashes of first-line production throughout his career, having approached the point-per-game pace several times throughout his career in Edmonton. He hasn’t been quite the same player of old however since his departure from the Big Oil, but seems rejuvenated playing alongside the league’s scoring leader, Anze Kopitar – in fact, Smyth has been given much of the credit for Kopitar’s explosive start to the season. He has been somewhat injury prone over his career, and isn’t the type of player who can dominate on his own. Paired up with Kopitar however, Smyth may be one to hold on to, especially with the overall lack of fantasy depth at the left wing position. Unless you’re overwhelmed with an offer, hold on to him.

Ryan Malone, Tampa Bay – if you’re ever going to get a chance to show your stuff, you would think playing alongside Sidney Crosby would be that chance. Despite playing alongside one of the greatest players in the league in Sid the Kid, Ryan Malone never scored more than 51 points in his career. Based on that, I’m not confident that Malone’s 19 points in 18 games pace to start the year will last, despite playing alongside Vinny Lecavalier. He’s definitely poised to have a career year, perhaps even around 65 points, but you may be able to sell high for some long-term value, especially perhaps those off to a slower start – Eric Staal, Thomas Vanek, Martin Havlat.

Craig Anderson, Colorado – I’ll start off by saying that this guy is no flash in the pan – I’m definitely not doubting his talent. Nevertheless, a sizzling October (10-2-2, 2.04 GAA, .939 SV%, 2 SO) may have left some fantasy owners expecting too much out of the Avalanche goalie. Colorado was picked by most this year to compete with Phoenix for the worst record in the Western conference, which makes it a tough environment for any goaltender to excel. Anderson has shown in his days with the Panthers that he is capable of carrying the load on a poor team, so his numbers should still be good, but don’t expect his hot start to go on forever, especially in terms of wins. In fact, November has been a much tougher month for Anderson, going 1-3-1 with a 3.53 GAA and a .883 SV% thus far. His numbers should bounce back to something more respectable however, and he may even finish among the top 10 goalies by year end. I’d be perfectly happy keeping Anderson as my number one goalie, provided he is paired with a goalie that can provide some additional win support, but I would nevertheless keep my ears open for anyone looking to overpay for Colorado’s hot, but unsustainable, start.

Diamonds in the Rough

Antero Nittymaki, Tampa Bay – Nittymaki is owned in only 39 percent of Yahoo leagues and yet is poised to take over the title of number one goalie in Tampa Bay. In nine appearances this year, Nittymaki has posted a 5-1-2 record with a 2.05 GAA and a .937 SV%. Although Nittymaki started the year as a platoon netminder, it’s just a matter of time before he gets the bulk of the workload as his counterpart Mike Smith has struggled: 2-3-2 with a 3.64 GAA and .879 SV%. Nittymaki’s numbers have been improving for the past four years and he finally looks to be developing into a solid goaltender on a very talented and promising young team. In fact thus far, the Lightning are probably the league’s most improved team over last year: after finishing last year with the second worst record in the league, Tampa was 7th in the East going into the weekend, a remarkable turnaround. Their scoring is up slightly from last year, but most remarkably, their goals against has gone from 27th in 2008-2009 to a respectable 18th overall this year, allowing 2.88 goals against per game; their record is even better when Nittymaki is in goal. With a mixture of established superstars in St.Louis and Lecavalier, and promising talent in Stamkos, Hedman and Nittymaki, they look to make a run for the playoffs this year and Nittymaki should deliver a great performance for your fantasy team.

One of the highlight signings for Toronto’s Brian Burke in the offseason was Jonas Gustavsson, a 24 year old netminder out of the Swedish Elite League. Without having played even a single game in North America, Gustavsson had captured the envy of nearly every team in the league this past summer, and with good reason – his play for Farjestad of the Elitserien League was nothing short of outstanding, having posted a 1.96 GAA and .932 save percentage in 42 games in one of the most skilled leagues outside of the NHL. Fast forward to the present day, and it seems as if Gustavsson, also nicknamed ‘The Monster’, is starting to live up to his billing.

The Intensive Care Unit: Injury Updates

Basic Economics: Buy Low, Sell High

We’re all familiar with one of the most basic principles of economics: buy low, sell high. In fantasy hockey, the same premise applies to player transactions – knowing when to pick up, or get rid of, certain players is the key for achieving success.

So who are this year’s buy low/sell-high candidates? Here’s a few:

1. Eric Staal, Carolina – BUY LOW: Eric Staal owners from last year will recall that Staal’s fantasy performance only really took off when Cole returned to the Hurricanes in a late-season trade with the Oilers. Following that trade, Staal reeled off 25 points in 18 games, after spending the first 64 games scoring meager 50 points. This year, Staal has once again sputtered out of the gate with 5 points in his first 13 games – not surprisingly though, Erik Cole was out of action for most of those first 13 games with an injury. With a healthy Cole returning to the lineup on Monday, expect to see Eric Staal bounce back to his high-scoring ways. Unfortunately, Staal suffered an upper-body injury a few days ago that will keep him out of the lineup for a week or two, but this may in fact create the perfect opportunity to snatch Cole from a frustrated owner. He can likely be had for a number two center, or an overachiever (see below).

2. Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit – BUY LOW: in this case, we’re not talking about someone who has been a complete dud coming out of the gate. Pavel has a very respectable 10 points in his first 10 games, but for a player that came off back-to-back 97 point seasons, and was selected on average 10th overall, some owners may be getting impatient and expect more out of their first round pick. However, there is good reason to think that his performance will shift into high gear very shortly: first, Datsyuk has been struggling with an injury to start the season, but seems to be turning the corner with that and skating well again. Secondly, in an effort to stimulate his team, coach Mike Babcock has reunited Datsyuk with Zetterberg, a combination which has been lethal in previous years and is certain to explode once again. Finally, Detroit GM Ken Holland mentioned in a recent radio interview that the team’s strategy at the start of the season was to reduce the workload of their top guns in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs. This plan for reduced ice-time has backfired however, as the Wings have suffered injury after injury, and have floundered out of the gate, currently sitting 11th (gasp!) in the Western Conference. As a result, expect to see a return to the norm for the Red Wings’ guns, as they push to reclaim their throne atop the conference. All this should bode well for Datsyuk, but the window to trade for him is quickly closing.

3. Matt Stajan, Toronto – BUY LOW: ordinarily, I wouldn’t recommend any Leafs player but I think we might have an exception here, especially for deeper leagues. Matt Stajan showed some promise as a playmaker last year with 40 assists in 76 games, much of that on a line with a rejuvenated Jason Blake.This year the Leafs have added 36-goal scorer Phil Kessel to their lineup , who expects to make his Leafs debut on Tuesday after recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. Matt Stajan stands to benefit the most from this, as he is now flanked by two proven scorers on either side and should get lots of playing time as the Leafs only real offensive line. He should be good for 60-65 points, along with a 50-60 PIM.

4. Dustin Penner, Edmonton – SELL HIGH: this is a screaming sell. Although Penner has never posted more than 47 points in any of his previous four years, he’s started off this year on fire, with 19 points in his first 13 games. Furthermore, his career shooting percentage is in the range of 12%, much lower than the 19% clip he is currently sniping at. Neither of those trends seem likely to continue, especially on an Edmonton team that isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. In fact, 9 of Penner’s 19 points have come in two games, which has resulted in a significant padding of his statistics. Indeed, aside from a 4 point outburst against Detroit on October 29, Penner has been held pointless in 4 of his last 5 games. He is definitely a sell candidate and can perhaps net you a solid defenseman in return.

5. Matt Carle, Philadelphia – SELL HIGH: Carle has 12 points in his first 12 games with the Flyers this year, with a plus-11 rating and 8 PIM. 7 of those points have come in 2 games, leaving him with 5 points in his remaining 10 games. I think that the latter stats are more indicative of his future performance, especially given the latest injuries to sniper Simon Gagne and Daniel Briere. Carle posted 26 points last year and although a 40 point season seems likely, his current pace is unsustainable. Look to package him in a trade to a team thin on blue liners while he’s hot.