Notepads Out

This week we’ve been treated with a series of impressive performances that make all fantasy owners take note. Here’s a few players to have on your radar:

Josh Bailey, Islanders – With John Tavares scoring just 8 points in his past 20 games, Bailey has taken command of the Islanders offense and has gone on a 14-point, 11-game tear, including 10 points in his last 5 games. Bailey, who was drafted 9th overall in the 2008 draft is on the verging of breaking through last year’s point total (25) in 22 fewer games. He has also made significant improvements to his defensive game, with a +11 rating thus far. Although we don’t expect this streak to continue indefinitely (remember, he plays for the Islanders) he may be worth a ride in deeper leagues and will certainly be a player to watch for in the years to come, as he and Tavares continue to develop.

Mike Brodeur, Senators – After shutting out the Rangers in just the second NHL start of his career, fantasy owners in deep leagues may want to take note of Marty’s distant cousin, Mike Brodeur. You certainly wouldn’t want to jump the gun, but if Brodeur posts another solid start, we may be nearing the start of yet another goaltending controversy in Ottawa. Their goaltending situation has been in a constant state of flux all year, and with Leclaire’s most recent concussion troubles, the door is certainly wide open for Brodeur to show the team what he’s got and make a run for it. So far, Brodeur has struggled in the AHL this year (3.30 GAA, .892 SV%), but had a solid 2008-2009 season (18-13-4, 2.45 GAA, .921 SV%), giving some hope for optimism. Stay tuned.

Cam Ward, Hurricanes – We all knew the Hurricanes weren’t as bad as they appeared early in the season, but even still, nobody wanted to touch them with a ten-foot pole. The team as a whole has been a fantasy disaster, being plagued with injuries and atrocious performances, especially in the plus/minus department. Nonetheless, things are starting to turn around, especially with the play of Cam Ward as of late. In the month of January, Ward is 4-2, with a 1.99 GAA and a .940 SV%. The team overall has won seven of their past 15 games, and is starting to make strides to pull out of the league basement. On offense they are led by Eric Staal, who is finally delivering with the 24th best fantasy performance over the past month. For owners desperate for some goaltending, Cam Ward would make a superb sleeper trade and should be a decent number two goalie for the remainder of the season.

Patric Hornqvist, Predators – After just 10 points in his first 26 games, Hornqvist has put together an impressive streak of 19 points in 20 games, with 3 GWG and a plus-10 rating. Hornqvist has really excelled playing alongside Steve Sullivan on the Predators number two line, and has shown remarkable consistency, scoring points in 12 of his past 15 games. In just his second NHL season, the jury is still out on whether he can sustain such a pace, but given the lack of depth in the right wing position, Hornqvist may be worth a look in moderately sized leagues.

Vincent Lecavalier, Lightning – The ship may already be sailing away on this one, but after struggling the first two months of the season, Vinny Lecavalier is finally starting to piece things back together, with 22 points in his past 21 games. His low-trending scoring percentages are still of concern to fantasy owners (15.3%, 12.6%, 10.0%, 6.9% since 2006-2007), but for the time being he’s seemed to have found a groove. If you’re looking for some scoring depth, you may still be able to pry Vinny away from an owner with an enticing trade, but be cautious not to overpay.

Danny Briere, Flyers – Talk about a poor return for your money – the Flyers invested $52 million over eight years in Danny Briere, only to have him miss 53 games last year with four different injuries. This year however, Briere is slowly rounding back to form and is definitely a player to keep on the watchlist, especially in shallow to moderately sized leagues. Playing on a line with Jeff Carter and Scott Hartnell, he’s scored a very respectable 31 points in 39 games thus far, and has eleven points in his last nine games, four of which are on the powerplay. As an added advantage, Briere has dual eligibility, qualifying at both center and right wing in Yahoo! leagues, making him that much more valuable. He’ll always be an injury risk, but based on his performance the past month, he may be well worth the gamble.

Playoff Strategy Having passed the halfway mark of the fantasy hockey season, you should by now have a strong grasp of what type of team you have. Enough time has passed for you to take note of scoring categories in which you tend to dominate, others in which you’re basically treading water, and those that you are virtually giving away each week. So what now? What if you’re stuck with one of those teams that just seems to be treading water most of the time – not terrible, but not great either, just kind of continually hovering around the .500 mark? A team in which you’re more than just one good trade away from joining the elite level? For those in H2H leagues, now is the time you start to look towards building your team for the playoffs. In the playoffs, a win, is a win, is a win. It doesn’t matter if you shutout your opponent 10-0 or if you barely squeaked by on a last second empty net goal that gave you a 6-4 victory – it’s all about survival until the next round. So how can you survive? The key is to ensure that you can consistently dominate a significant number of categories, preferably at least half, in order to guarantee yourself of a certain number of points each week. In fantasy hockey, most leagues are broken up into two tiers: goaltending scoring and offensive scoring. That is, in a ten-category league there may be five goaltending categories (W, GAA, SV%, SO, SV) and five offensive ones (G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM). If, through smart trades, you can build your team to dominate one side of the puck, you’ll likely have a good chance at winning your matchup, albeit by the slimmest of margins. Dominating one side of the puck typically implies punting away the other categories. It’s very difficult to build a team that dominates on both sides of the puck, and virtually impossible to do so halfway through the season when all you’ve got to work with is a mediocre roster. For that reason, managers stuck in mediocrity should assess their team’s strengths and weaknesses and pick a direction in which to go. Holding on to an average team and simply hoping for a hot hand is a great strategy for those aspiring to finish fifth, but a poor one for those looking to win their league. Typically, the easiest direction in which to transform a team is towards the defensive side. Why? Because it’s simply easier to negotiate trades to acquire 4 elite goaltenders rather than 12 elite forwards/defensemen. For example, if you can dominate W, GAA, SV% and SV (4 of the 5 goaltending categories that should be winnable with elite goaltending), you can likely find enough goons to get you the needed number of PIM to assure yourself of a 5-5 tie at worst. And that’s not to mention the goalie shutout category – although that’s the trickiest of all to predict with any consistency, with elite goaltending the odds are in your favour. Nearly 50% of the weekly shutout categories in my fantasy hockey league end in ties, suggesting that if your elite goalies can’t you get enough shutouts, there is a very good chance that at worst, you’ll end up with a tie in that category, meaning a 5-4-1 victory for you. And as an added bonus, if your opponent is not particularly strong in the plus/minus category, you have yet another wild card category in which anything can happen.

The execution of this plan lies in the trade offers you make. The important part of all this is not the relative equality of the trade, but that the trade is a means to an end for you. It doesn’t matter if the offensive player(s) you are giving up are more valuable than the goalie you are getting in return; what matters is that you’re getting the goalie you need to execute your plan. Remember, we’re not concerned with offensive statistics. Some might see certain trades as lopsided, but your final objective is what’s important. It doesn’t matter if your opponent outscores you in goals 60-10, as long as you can get steal that 5-4-1 victory. For example, the odds are that you’ve got at least one top ten forward, one top ten defenseman and one top five goaltender on your team. Sacrificing a package of number one ranked Alexander Ovechkin together with Drew Doughty, for the 13th ranked Ryan Miller, would be a victory despite the uneven rankings, because you would now equip your team with a second top five goaltender. As your offensive depth dwindles however, a little more creativity will be needed to land that third elite goaltender – perhaps a package of some relatively good forwards and defensemen to a team that has some goaltending depth but is desperate for scoring would suffice. Whatever the case, your ultimate goal is to reach 3 elite goaltenders. Beyond that, your own second tier goalie will likely suffice, especially if he plays well at home. Tampa Bay’s Mike Smith for example has a superb record at home (7-3-3, 2.05, .933, 1 SO) but is absolutely awful on the road – as your fourth goalie however, you can afford to only be playing him in home games.

What to do with your now depleted offensive roster? Go out there, whether by waiver pickups or “lopsided” trades, and pick up the best PIM goons you can find. Again, you are not looking for equal value in a trade, you just want to execute your plan. As an added bonus, if you can find players that won’t hurt your plus/minus ranking, you stand a reasonable chance of picking up a victory in that category as well, especially if your opponent isn’t particularly strong in that respect.

All of a sudden, you’ve turned a mediocre team into one that will manhandle opponents defensively for at least 4, if not 5 points, and will have a very good chance at winning PIM to seal up your win, not to mention the possibility of a plus/minus victory. All of this is possible, but only if you are willing to take the risk. If you’re currently stuck in the middle of the pack, what do you have to lose?

Fantasy Hockey Developments

It’s back to work here at Sports Ruckus after a much-needed holiday break. Without further ado then, here are the latest developments in the fantasy hockey world, over the past ten days:

On the injury front, a glimmer of hope is finally starting to appear on the horizon for the Detroit Red Wings, after an injury-plagued start to the season. Valtteri Filppula (wrist) returned to the team last week and now Henrik Zetterberg (separated shoulder) is expected back tonight against the Ducks, or Thursday against the Kings. Niklas Kronwall (sprained MCL) is also anticipated to be back in the lineup in the next 5-7 days, providing some much-needed stability and depth to the Wings blue line. Although Franzen (torn ACL) is still not expected to return until March, the rejuvenated health of the Wings, along with the solid play of emerging goalie Jimmy Howard, should provide Lidstrom and Datsyuk owners with a glimmer of hope. After registering just 8 points in his first 26 games, Lidstrom has stepped up his production and has tallied 11 points in the past 15, and although he still only has one goal on the season, that should improve as the team gets healthier and back into their familiar grooves. The same is hoped for Pavel Datsyuk who is currently on pace for a 67 point season, his worst since entering the league. These returns from injury may pose an opportunity for fantasy owners to buy low, certainly on Datsyuk, and perhaps even on Lidstrom, although that ship may have already started to sail. Despite Detroit’s aging core of players, the talent still remains for a strong second half.

Despite leading his team to its first playoff appearance in three years last year, head coach Andy Murray was fired by the St.Louis Blues on Sunday after a slow start to the season that was marked by a league-worst 6-14-3 record at home. 39 year-old Davis Payne, coach of the Blues’ AHL affiliate in Peoria, was named as the interim replacement and hopes to bring a more relaxed approach to team bursting with young talent that may have been worn down by Andy Murray. Despite all the negatives surrounding the team however, there is reason for optimism. Firstly, although the Blues powerplay currently ranks 25th in the league, it’s comprised mostly of the same players from last year’s team, whose powerplay ranking was 8th overall. Special teams play is often one of the most noticeable changes brought in by a new coaching staff, and with skilled players like Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes and Erik Johnson on the man advantage, I believe a turn-around will be coming. Secondly, the most surprising (and puzzling) statistic for the Blues is their road record: 11-4-3, which is in the top five across the league. In fact, if it wasn’t for their strong play on the road, the Blues might be challenging the Hurricanes for the worst overall record. Such a backwards disparity between a team’s home and away play is an oddity, and unlikely to continue. Under a more relaxed approach, look for the Blues to improve their home record. Thirdly, team leaders Brad Boyes (13P in 16G) and Andy McDonald (12P in 16G) have started to turn things around, hopefully providing a platform off which some of the younger players can build on. David Backes finished last year with 36 points in 45 games, but has struggled thus far with just 21 points. T.J Oshie scored 27 points in 35 games after the All-Star break last year, but has only 20 points this season. A coaching change may be just what these players need to turn their game around. What does all this mean for fantasy owners? If you’re looking to take a flyer on some players, consider the St.Louis Blues – last season’s finish proved that they clearly have the talent to turn things around. You may still be able to buy low on Boyes, Backes or Mason, but don’t discount the potential of an Oshie or Colaiacovo.

The Bruins announced the signing of former-Sabre Miroslav Satan on Saturday, with the hope that he will bring some scoring depth and speed to a team that ranks near the bottom of the league in offense. With the trade of Phil Kessel to the Leafs, the B’s have sorely lacked a player who can finish a play off alongside Marc Savard. Unfortunately, I don’t think Satan will be the answer – after all, despite playing alongside one of the league’s best playmakers in Sidney Crosby for much of last year, he still only managed to score 17 goals in 65 games. He’s worth a flyer only in deep leagues, but is unlikely to provide much benefit. In other Bruins notes, Tuuka Rask will have some added fantasy value in January as the Bruins play four sets of back-to-back games. Rask played the opener of the first back-to-back set yesterday, losing 3-2, despite logging a .914 save percentage.

Teemu Selanne (broken hand) is nearing a return to the Ducks after spending the past five weeks on the IR. He is practicing with the team again and is hopeful to play as early as Thursday against the Blues. On the flipside, Kevin Bieksa owners are sure to be disappointed after Bieksa suffered a nasty leg laceration last week – a similar injury two years ago cost Bieksa 47 games, so don’t bother holding on to him. Cut him and look elsewhere for help.

Finally, if you’re looking for a little scoring depth, 3rd overall pick Matt Duchene has started to show why he was so highly touted by scouts. Despite not having reached his 19th birthday, Duchene has shown he can play with the big boys, finishing off the month of December with 13 points in 14 games. His goal totals have been on the rise each month, and his plus-minus has started to stabilize. Although we can’t say with a certainty, this is certainly reminiscent of the play of Steven Stamkos last year, who after a slow start to the year, finished with 28 points in 34 games after the All-Star break. Stay tuned!

Two-Faced Marauders

Our previous article illustrated the notion of how some fantasy hockey statistics can be misleading if they are simply taken at face value. This week we’ll examine the same principle for goalie statistics, and specifically, in home and away numbers. It’s no secret that most teams play their best hockey in their home arena, and goalies are certainly no exception to this. Although truly elite goaltenders have the ability to maintain a consistent performance both in their home rink, as well as on the road, most goaltenders’ statistics are significantly better at home. Fantasy managers can use this to their advantage in deciding which goaltender to play or bench on any given night, and also in potential trade transactions. Here are some examples:

Carey Price, 2008-2009 Canadiens – After capturing the hearts of the Blue-Blanc-Rouge fans in his rookie year, the Montreal Canadiens had high hopes for Carey Price in the 2008-2009 season. All sorts of comparisons to former-Canadien Ken Dryden were being thrown Price’s way during the offseason, only to end in disappointment as the second year goalie failed to live up to expectations that year, posting a sub-par 2.83 GAA, .905 SV% and 1 shutout over 52 appearances. For most fantasy managers, that type of line didn’t sit well considering that many had spent their 3rd round draft pick on the promising goaltender. A closer look at those numbers however, revealed a small diamond in the rough – Price’s home numbers were in fact excellent: 13-4-7, 2.40 GAA and a .918 SV%. Compare those numbers to his road stats (10-12-3, 3.21, .895) and it’s clear that Price’s value was purely in his home performance. To that end, managers who played Price exclusively at home surely benefited from his performance, especially in rotisserie leagues. Even more interesting however is the opportunity that existed to trade for Carey Price – since his road numbers significantly diluted his excellent home performance, astute mangers could have likely traded for Price at a significant discount, yet receive excellent value in return by playing him in his home rink.

Jon Quick, Kings – Building off an impressive rookie campaign last year, Quick has emerged as a strong candidate to be the Kings’ goalie of the future. Thus far, Quick is challenging for the league lead in wins with 19, only one behind the leader, Martin Brodeur. His overall stat line however is not as impressive: 2.61 GAA, .903 SV%, zero shutouts. A home/away breakdown however reveals a different picture – Home: 2.14 GAA, .913 SV%. Road: 2.81 GAA, .893 SV%. Quick allows an average of close to 0.7 goals more on the road than at home, with a concomitant decrease in his save percentage. Although we’re not diminishing his abilities, understanding this performance difference will perhaps help you to decide whether or not to play Quick in the closing Sunday game of a weekly H2H matchup, or in the middle of a tight race in the rotisserie standings for GAA and SV%. In the case of a H2H matchup, you may decide to take the hit on a potential win, but save yourself in the other two categories of GAA and SV%.

Semyon Varlamov, Capitals – Although Varlamov provides strong goaltending both on the road and at home, his home numbers are simply staggering: 7-0-0, 1.49 GAA, .944 GAA and one shutout. What does this mean? That no matter what, Varlamov is a must-play in home games. His performance at home thus far (or at least prior to injury) trumps the performance of nearly any other goaltender in the league. So if you’re stuck in a situation with three goalies playing on the same night, Varlamov would be a no brainer in any game at the Verizon Center.

Tim Thomas, Boston – Although few would have the guts to bench the reigning Vezina trophy winner, Thomas’ home/away numbers this year do merit some attention: Home: 5-4-2, 2.05 GAA, .930 SV%, 2 SO. Road: 2-4-2, 3.11 GAA, .889 SV%, 1 SO. Understanding this reality could be critical in deciding whether or not to play Thomas in certain key situations. For example, the Bruins travel to Chicago on Friday to take on the Blackhawks, who not only have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, but also a stellar 13-3-1 record at home. Despite Thomas’ reputation as a stand-out goaltender, the numbers and the matchup suggest that the best strategy would be to sit the former Vezina winner.

This strategy can be applied as equally to position players. Many players show significant variance in their home/away performances, and being aware of these differences can help you in deciding who to play when you have a full roster. Granted, this method is not foolproof – Tim Thomas could very well shut the Hawks out on Friday’s game, but generally speaking, the numbers do not lie, and being aware of them should help you play your team according to its strengths.