Notepads Out

This week we’ve been treated with a series of impressive performances that make all fantasy owners take note. Here’s a few players to have on your radar:

Josh Bailey, Islanders – With John Tavares scoring just 8 points in his past 20 games, Bailey has taken command of the Islanders offense and has gone on a 14-point, 11-game tear, including 10 points in his last 5 games. Bailey, who was drafted 9th overall in the 2008 draft is on the verging of breaking through last year’s point total (25) in 22 fewer games. He has also made significant improvements to his defensive game, with a +11 rating thus far. Although we don’t expect this streak to continue indefinitely (remember, he plays for the Islanders) he may be worth a ride in deeper leagues and will certainly be a player to watch for in the years to come, as he and Tavares continue to develop.

Mike Brodeur, Senators – After shutting out the Rangers in just the second NHL start of his career, fantasy owners in deep leagues may want to take note of Marty’s distant cousin, Mike Brodeur. You certainly wouldn’t want to jump the gun, but if Brodeur posts another solid start, we may be nearing the start of yet another goaltending controversy in Ottawa. Their goaltending situation has been in a constant state of flux all year, and with Leclaire’s most recent concussion troubles, the door is certainly wide open for Brodeur to show the team what he’s got and make a run for it. So far, Brodeur has struggled in the AHL this year (3.30 GAA, .892 SV%), but had a solid 2008-2009 season (18-13-4, 2.45 GAA, .921 SV%), giving some hope for optimism. Stay tuned.

Cam Ward, Hurricanes – We all knew the Hurricanes weren’t as bad as they appeared early in the season, but even still, nobody wanted to touch them with a ten-foot pole. The team as a whole has been a fantasy disaster, being plagued with injuries and atrocious performances, especially in the plus/minus department. Nonetheless, things are starting to turn around, especially with the play of Cam Ward as of late. In the month of January, Ward is 4-2, with a 1.99 GAA and a .940 SV%. The team overall has won seven of their past 15 games, and is starting to make strides to pull out of the league basement. On offense they are led by Eric Staal, who is finally delivering with the 24th best fantasy performance over the past month. For owners desperate for some goaltending, Cam Ward would make a superb sleeper trade and should be a decent number two goalie for the remainder of the season.

Patric Hornqvist, Predators – After just 10 points in his first 26 games, Hornqvist has put together an impressive streak of 19 points in 20 games, with 3 GWG and a plus-10 rating. Hornqvist has really excelled playing alongside Steve Sullivan on the Predators number two line, and has shown remarkable consistency, scoring points in 12 of his past 15 games. In just his second NHL season, the jury is still out on whether he can sustain such a pace, but given the lack of depth in the right wing position, Hornqvist may be worth a look in moderately sized leagues.

Vincent Lecavalier, Lightning – The ship may already be sailing away on this one, but after struggling the first two months of the season, Vinny Lecavalier is finally starting to piece things back together, with 22 points in his past 21 games. His low-trending scoring percentages are still of concern to fantasy owners (15.3%, 12.6%, 10.0%, 6.9% since 2006-2007), but for the time being he’s seemed to have found a groove. If you’re looking for some scoring depth, you may still be able to pry Vinny away from an owner with an enticing trade, but be cautious not to overpay.

Danny Briere, Flyers – Talk about a poor return for your money – the Flyers invested $52 million over eight years in Danny Briere, only to have him miss 53 games last year with four different injuries. This year however, Briere is slowly rounding back to form and is definitely a player to keep on the watchlist, especially in shallow to moderately sized leagues. Playing on a line with Jeff Carter and Scott Hartnell, he’s scored a very respectable 31 points in 39 games thus far, and has eleven points in his last nine games, four of which are on the powerplay. As an added advantage, Briere has dual eligibility, qualifying at both center and right wing in Yahoo! leagues, making him that much more valuable. He’ll always be an injury risk, but based on his performance the past month, he may be well worth the gamble.

Playoff Strategy Having passed the halfway mark of the fantasy hockey season, you should by now have a strong grasp of what type of team you have. Enough time has passed for you to take note of scoring categories in which you tend to dominate, others in which you’re basically treading water, and those that you are virtually giving away each week. So what now? What if you’re stuck with one of those teams that just seems to be treading water most of the time – not terrible, but not great either, just kind of continually hovering around the .500 mark? A team in which you’re more than just one good trade away from joining the elite level? For those in H2H leagues, now is the time you start to look towards building your team for the playoffs. In the playoffs, a win, is a win, is a win. It doesn’t matter if you shutout your opponent 10-0 or if you barely squeaked by on a last second empty net goal that gave you a 6-4 victory – it’s all about survival until the next round. So how can you survive? The key is to ensure that you can consistently dominate a significant number of categories, preferably at least half, in order to guarantee yourself of a certain number of points each week. In fantasy hockey, most leagues are broken up into two tiers: goaltending scoring and offensive scoring. That is, in a ten-category league there may be five goaltending categories (W, GAA, SV%, SO, SV) and five offensive ones (G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM). If, through smart trades, you can build your team to dominate one side of the puck, you’ll likely have a good chance at winning your matchup, albeit by the slimmest of margins. Dominating one side of the puck typically implies punting away the other categories. It’s very difficult to build a team that dominates on both sides of the puck, and virtually impossible to do so halfway through the season when all you’ve got to work with is a mediocre roster. For that reason, managers stuck in mediocrity should assess their team’s strengths and weaknesses and pick a direction in which to go. Holding on to an average team and simply hoping for a hot hand is a great strategy for those aspiring to finish fifth, but a poor one for those looking to win their league. Typically, the easiest direction in which to transform a team is towards the defensive side. Why? Because it’s simply easier to negotiate trades to acquire 4 elite goaltenders rather than 12 elite forwards/defensemen. For example, if you can dominate W, GAA, SV% and SV (4 of the 5 goaltending categories that should be winnable with elite goaltending), you can likely find enough goons to get you the needed number of PIM to assure yourself of a 5-5 tie at worst. And that’s not to mention the goalie shutout category – although that’s the trickiest of all to predict with any consistency, with elite goaltending the odds are in your favour. Nearly 50% of the weekly shutout categories in my fantasy hockey league end in ties, suggesting that if your elite goalies can’t you get enough shutouts, there is a very good chance that at worst, you’ll end up with a tie in that category, meaning a 5-4-1 victory for you. And as an added bonus, if your opponent is not particularly strong in the plus/minus category, you have yet another wild card category in which anything can happen.

The execution of this plan lies in the trade offers you make. The important part of all this is not the relative equality of the trade, but that the trade is a means to an end for you. It doesn’t matter if the offensive player(s) you are giving up are more valuable than the goalie you are getting in return; what matters is that you’re getting the goalie you need to execute your plan. Remember, we’re not concerned with offensive statistics. Some might see certain trades as lopsided, but your final objective is what’s important. It doesn’t matter if your opponent outscores you in goals 60-10, as long as you can get steal that 5-4-1 victory. For example, the odds are that you’ve got at least one top ten forward, one top ten defenseman and one top five goaltender on your team. Sacrificing a package of number one ranked Alexander Ovechkin together with Drew Doughty, for the 13th ranked Ryan Miller, would be a victory despite the uneven rankings, because you would now equip your team with a second top five goaltender. As your offensive depth dwindles however, a little more creativity will be needed to land that third elite goaltender – perhaps a package of some relatively good forwards and defensemen to a team that has some goaltending depth but is desperate for scoring would suffice. Whatever the case, your ultimate goal is to reach 3 elite goaltenders. Beyond that, your own second tier goalie will likely suffice, especially if he plays well at home. Tampa Bay’s Mike Smith for example has a superb record at home (7-3-3, 2.05, .933, 1 SO) but is absolutely awful on the road – as your fourth goalie however, you can afford to only be playing him in home games.

What to do with your now depleted offensive roster? Go out there, whether by waiver pickups or “lopsided” trades, and pick up the best PIM goons you can find. Again, you are not looking for equal value in a trade, you just want to execute your plan. As an added bonus, if you can find players that won’t hurt your plus/minus ranking, you stand a reasonable chance of picking up a victory in that category as well, especially if your opponent isn’t particularly strong in that respect.

All of a sudden, you’ve turned a mediocre team into one that will manhandle opponents defensively for at least 4, if not 5 points, and will have a very good chance at winning PIM to seal up your win, not to mention the possibility of a plus/minus victory. All of this is possible, but only if you are willing to take the risk. If you’re currently stuck in the middle of the pack, what do you have to lose?

Fantasy Hockey Developments

It’s back to work here at Sports Ruckus after a much-needed holiday break. Without further ado then, here are the latest developments in the fantasy hockey world, over the past ten days:

On the injury front, a glimmer of hope is finally starting to appear on the horizon for the Detroit Red Wings, after an injury-plagued start to the season. Valtteri Filppula (wrist) returned to the team last week and now Henrik Zetterberg (separated shoulder) is expected back tonight against the Ducks, or Thursday against the Kings. Niklas Kronwall (sprained MCL) is also anticipated to be back in the lineup in the next 5-7 days, providing some much-needed stability and depth to the Wings blue line. Although Franzen (torn ACL) is still not expected to return until March, the rejuvenated health of the Wings, along with the solid play of emerging goalie Jimmy Howard, should provide Lidstrom and Datsyuk owners with a glimmer of hope. After registering just 8 points in his first 26 games, Lidstrom has stepped up his production and has tallied 11 points in the past 15, and although he still only has one goal on the season, that should improve as the team gets healthier and back into their familiar grooves. The same is hoped for Pavel Datsyuk who is currently on pace for a 67 point season, his worst since entering the league. These returns from injury may pose an opportunity for fantasy owners to buy low, certainly on Datsyuk, and perhaps even on Lidstrom, although that ship may have already started to sail. Despite Detroit’s aging core of players, the talent still remains for a strong second half.

Despite leading his team to its first playoff appearance in three years last year, head coach Andy Murray was fired by the St.Louis Blues on Sunday after a slow start to the season that was marked by a league-worst 6-14-3 record at home. 39 year-old Davis Payne, coach of the Blues’ AHL affiliate in Peoria, was named as the interim replacement and hopes to bring a more relaxed approach to team bursting with young talent that may have been worn down by Andy Murray. Despite all the negatives surrounding the team however, there is reason for optimism. Firstly, although the Blues powerplay currently ranks 25th in the league, it’s comprised mostly of the same players from last year’s team, whose powerplay ranking was 8th overall. Special teams play is often one of the most noticeable changes brought in by a new coaching staff, and with skilled players like Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes and Erik Johnson on the man advantage, I believe a turn-around will be coming. Secondly, the most surprising (and puzzling) statistic for the Blues is their road record: 11-4-3, which is in the top five across the league. In fact, if it wasn’t for their strong play on the road, the Blues might be challenging the Hurricanes for the worst overall record. Such a backwards disparity between a team’s home and away play is an oddity, and unlikely to continue. Under a more relaxed approach, look for the Blues to improve their home record. Thirdly, team leaders Brad Boyes (13P in 16G) and Andy McDonald (12P in 16G) have started to turn things around, hopefully providing a platform off which some of the younger players can build on. David Backes finished last year with 36 points in 45 games, but has struggled thus far with just 21 points. T.J Oshie scored 27 points in 35 games after the All-Star break last year, but has only 20 points this season. A coaching change may be just what these players need to turn their game around. What does all this mean for fantasy owners? If you’re looking to take a flyer on some players, consider the St.Louis Blues – last season’s finish proved that they clearly have the talent to turn things around. You may still be able to buy low on Boyes, Backes or Mason, but don’t discount the potential of an Oshie or Colaiacovo.

The Bruins announced the signing of former-Sabre Miroslav Satan on Saturday, with the hope that he will bring some scoring depth and speed to a team that ranks near the bottom of the league in offense. With the trade of Phil Kessel to the Leafs, the B’s have sorely lacked a player who can finish a play off alongside Marc Savard. Unfortunately, I don’t think Satan will be the answer – after all, despite playing alongside one of the league’s best playmakers in Sidney Crosby for much of last year, he still only managed to score 17 goals in 65 games. He’s worth a flyer only in deep leagues, but is unlikely to provide much benefit. In other Bruins notes, Tuuka Rask will have some added fantasy value in January as the Bruins play four sets of back-to-back games. Rask played the opener of the first back-to-back set yesterday, losing 3-2, despite logging a .914 save percentage.

Teemu Selanne (broken hand) is nearing a return to the Ducks after spending the past five weeks on the IR. He is practicing with the team again and is hopeful to play as early as Thursday against the Blues. On the flipside, Kevin Bieksa owners are sure to be disappointed after Bieksa suffered a nasty leg laceration last week – a similar injury two years ago cost Bieksa 47 games, so don’t bother holding on to him. Cut him and look elsewhere for help.

Finally, if you’re looking for a little scoring depth, 3rd overall pick Matt Duchene has started to show why he was so highly touted by scouts. Despite not having reached his 19th birthday, Duchene has shown he can play with the big boys, finishing off the month of December with 13 points in 14 games. His goal totals have been on the rise each month, and his plus-minus has started to stabilize. Although we can’t say with a certainty, this is certainly reminiscent of the play of Steven Stamkos last year, who after a slow start to the year, finished with 28 points in 34 games after the All-Star break. Stay tuned!

On Shanahan to Washington?

“Keep in mind, Shanahan won ONLY ONE playoff game after Elway retired — ONE in 9 seasons!!!! So, be careful what you wish for Redskins fans.” Read the full story

So your staying home this weekend, with spring training just around the corner “Moneyball” is a great movie to watch to get the baseball juices flowing in the cold days of January.

“Come on Donaghy…what were you looking at!”  As a taunt from an over-served and irate fan at an official during a sporting event it was unremarkable.  We have heard them and probably uttered them on countless occasions.  What made this different was that the official being harassed was not named Donaghy, but rather was respected baseball umpire Tim McLelland.  Officials from all sports are getting used to the reference to disgraced former NBA referee Tim Donaghy who was banished from his profession and jailed for gambling on games he was officiating.  As the details of his conduct emerged, the shock waves were felt on an increasingly wide scale and the ramifications for all officials have been significant.  Suddenly, every call is being scrutinized not just for accuracy but in trying to determine if the referee or umpire has a hidden agenda, a secret bias or even (gasp!), a monetary stake in the result.  Veteran NFL referee Ed Hoculi reported death threats and constant harassment about his “motive” when he kicked a crucial late-game call between Denver and San Diego, a call that gave Denver a victory and had viewers everywhere thinking about Donaghy.

On their own, Donaghy’s actions while officiating could be explained and even to a degree, understood.  Society has come to the realization that gambling is a serious illness and the extent to which inveterate gamblers will go to satisfy their habit is limitless.  The well-documented case of former NFL and Ohio State quarterback Art Schleister is familiar to all sports fans and points to the powerlessness that addicts feel under the weight of their disease and the completeness of their self-destructive behaviour.  But where Donaghy’s actions really cross a previously unapproached line is in his odious claims that the entire roster of officials in the NBA –and by extension, all professional sports- is corrupt.  Donaghy claims that fellow refs regularly influenced the outcome of games because of pre-existing grudges and personality clashes with players and coaches.  He claims to be able to predict the outcome of “80% of NBA games” just by knowing the identity of the crew working any particular game.  The implication is that the outcome of the vast majority of games is pre-determined by the officials.  

At first blush, Donaghy’s outrageous claims can be dismissed as the delusional ravings of a man determined to justify his own criminal behaviour.  But the problem is that they plant a seed of doubt and are subtle enough to be unable to completely disprove.  In a sport like basketball or football, most of the decisions of the officials come down to judgment and we inherently accept the objectivity of the men and women who make those decisions. The sport of figure skating was recently rocked by a similar set of accusations, that judging was pre-determined and outcomes assured in advance.  But in that sport, national allegiances were the obvious motivators and we could rationalize the pressure that the judges were under to “fix” the results.  What is the motive Donaghy is suggesting here? It’s not money, as the disgraced ref acknowledges that he knows of no other officials that are involved in gambling. Donaghy is trying to make the case that simple pique is driving this process.  Grown men are making decisions because their feelings were hurt or they are angry at one or more of the participants.  By eliminating from the equation qualities such as integrity, pride and professionalism –traits that are held in high esteem by officials in all sports- Donaghy is making the simple mistake of projecting his own failings and lack of moral character onto his colleagues.  It is the most pathetic aspect of this whole, tawdry mess.  There is also a practical element here that is being missed by those who tend to accept Donaghy’s shocking story.  It is estimated that basketball officials make between 7 and 10,000 individual judgments over the course of any one game!  These decisions are therefore happening in a fraction of a second and are described by all top officials as being instinctive and reactionary.  There simply is no time when adjudicating a tough block/charge call to factor in the personal histories of the players or teams involved and it is in hundreds of these decisions that any effect the officials have on the game are felt.  The best officials get these calls right at a staggeringly-high percentage.

At the start of this NBA pre-season, the regular officials were on the sidelines and replacement refs worked the game.  Ostensibly, this was the result of a Collective-Bargaining impasse that came down to a dispute over pension contributions and accessibility.  There was even the suggestion that Commissioner David Stern was taking a “hard-line” with the officials to send a message to the players that the economy of the NBA has taken a hit and to be prepared to make concessions when their deal ends after next season.  What was really at work was Stern re-establishing his authority over the officials in the wake of this scandal and the fact that the officials effectively caved under the pressure and accepted the NBA’s offer is an indication of the lack of leverage they now have.  They now work under the shadow of the accusations being made by one of their own and this has made an already incredibly difficult task almost impossible.  Donaghy’s motives are clear, he is trying to sell books and he has sold his soul in the process.  The effects of his actions are being felt in all sports and have called into question men and women striving in one of the last pure aspects of professional sports.  For that most of all, shame on Tim Donaghy.