Two-Faced Marauders

Our previous article illustrated the notion of how some fantasy hockey statistics can be misleading if they are simply taken at face value. This week we’ll examine the same principle for goalie statistics, and specifically, in home and away numbers. It’s no secret that most teams play their best hockey in their home arena, and goalies are certainly no exception to this. Although truly elite goaltenders have the ability to maintain a consistent performance both in their home rink, as well as on the road, most goaltenders’ statistics are significantly better at home. Fantasy managers can use this to their advantage in deciding which goaltender to play or bench on any given night, and also in potential trade transactions. Here are some examples:

Carey Price, 2008-2009 Canadiens – After capturing the hearts of the Blue-Blanc-Rouge fans in his rookie year, the Montreal Canadiens had high hopes for Carey Price in the 2008-2009 season. All sorts of comparisons to former-Canadien Ken Dryden were being thrown Price’s way during the offseason, only to end in disappointment as the second year goalie failed to live up to expectations that year, posting a sub-par 2.83 GAA, .905 SV% and 1 shutout over 52 appearances. For most fantasy managers, that type of line didn’t sit well considering that many had spent their 3rd round draft pick on the promising goaltender. A closer look at those numbers however, revealed a small diamond in the rough – Price’s home numbers were in fact excellent: 13-4-7, 2.40 GAA and a .918 SV%. Compare those numbers to his road stats (10-12-3, 3.21, .895) and it’s clear that Price’s value was purely in his home performance. To that end, managers who played Price exclusively at home surely benefited from his performance, especially in rotisserie leagues. Even more interesting however is the opportunity that existed to trade for Carey Price – since his road numbers significantly diluted his excellent home performance, astute mangers could have likely traded for Price at a significant discount, yet receive excellent value in return by playing him in his home rink.

Jon Quick, Kings – Building off an impressive rookie campaign last year, Quick has emerged as a strong candidate to be the Kings’ goalie of the future. Thus far, Quick is challenging for the league lead in wins with 19, only one behind the leader, Martin Brodeur. His overall stat line however is not as impressive: 2.61 GAA, .903 SV%, zero shutouts. A home/away breakdown however reveals a different picture – Home: 2.14 GAA, .913 SV%. Road: 2.81 GAA, .893 SV%. Quick allows an average of close to 0.7 goals more on the road than at home, with a concomitant decrease in his save percentage. Although we’re not diminishing his abilities, understanding this performance difference will perhaps help you to decide whether or not to play Quick in the closing Sunday game of a weekly H2H matchup, or in the middle of a tight race in the rotisserie standings for GAA and SV%. In the case of a H2H matchup, you may decide to take the hit on a potential win, but save yourself in the other two categories of GAA and SV%.

Semyon Varlamov, Capitals – Although Varlamov provides strong goaltending both on the road and at home, his home numbers are simply staggering: 7-0-0, 1.49 GAA, .944 GAA and one shutout. What does this mean? That no matter what, Varlamov is a must-play in home games. His performance at home thus far (or at least prior to injury) trumps the performance of nearly any other goaltender in the league. So if you’re stuck in a situation with three goalies playing on the same night, Varlamov would be a no brainer in any game at the Verizon Center.

Tim Thomas, Boston – Although few would have the guts to bench the reigning Vezina trophy winner, Thomas’ home/away numbers this year do merit some attention: Home: 5-4-2, 2.05 GAA, .930 SV%, 2 SO. Road: 2-4-2, 3.11 GAA, .889 SV%, 1 SO. Understanding this reality could be critical in deciding whether or not to play Thomas in certain key situations. For example, the Bruins travel to Chicago on Friday to take on the Blackhawks, who not only have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, but also a stellar 13-3-1 record at home. Despite Thomas’ reputation as a stand-out goaltender, the numbers and the matchup suggest that the best strategy would be to sit the former Vezina winner.

This strategy can be applied as equally to position players. Many players show significant variance in their home/away performances, and being aware of these differences can help you in deciding who to play when you have a full roster. Granted, this method is not foolproof – Tim Thomas could very well shut the Hawks out on Friday’s game, but generally speaking, the numbers do not lie, and being aware of them should help you play your team according to its strengths.