Fantasy Shootout
Although most public fantasy leagues have not yet made the transition, an increasing number of private leagues are starting to incorporate shootout statistics into their overall fantasy scoring. In most cases, fantasy points are rewarded for shootout goals only, although in more developed leagues partial points may also be awarded for shootout opportunities and even shootout scoring percentages or game-deciding shootout goals. Much like shorthanded points or even game-winning goals, these quirky statistics can often make a notable impact on your fantasy scoring. There are two factors to examine when assessing a player’s shootout success: the number of shootout opportunities given and the number of shootout goals scored. It stands to reason, that the more opportunities a player has to participate in a shootout, the more potential he has to score. Here is a list of the top 15 shootout participants for the year:
1. Rick Nash (10)
2. Steven Reinprecht (10)
3. Patrice Bergeron (10)
4. Blake Wheeler (10)
5. Kristian Huselius (9)
6. Jack Johnson (8)
7. Patrick O’Sullivan (8)
8. Brad Richards (8)
9. Mike Ribeiro (8)
10. Brad Boyes (7)
11. Marek Svatos (7)
12. Jussi Jokinen (7)
13. Rostislav Olesz (7)
14. Anze Kopitar (7)
15. Dan Boyle (7)
At first glance, it may seem obvious that a name like Rick Nash would be at, or near, the top of the list. What’s surprising however, is the over-representation of second and third-line players in shootouts – names like Blake Wheeler, Rostislav Olesz and Patrick O’Sullivan have appeared in eight or more shootouts this year, despite the fact that none of them have more than seven goals on the season, and in fact have a combined total of just 20 goals so far. Furthermore, we can’t help but be surprised that Dan Boyle has appeared in more shootouts than Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau and even Devin Setoguchi, all of whom are accomplished scorers.
How do the numbers change when looking at shootout goals scored? In this case, we get a significantly different top 15:
1. Sidney Crosby (5)
2. Pavel Datsyuk (4)
3. Jonathan Toews (4)
4. Zach Parise (4)
5. Andy McDonald (4)
6. Brad Boyes (4)
7. Marek Svatos (4)
8. Jussi Jokinen (4)
9. Jack Johnson (4)
10. Patrick O’Sullivan (4)
11. Rick Nash (4)
12. Michael Santorelli (3)
13. Michel Handzus (3)
14. Olli Jokinen (3)
15. Jamie Langenbrunner (3)
Only six of the top 15 in shootout opportunities make the cut in goals scored. In fact, the top ranking shootout scorer, Sidney Crosby, is nowhere to be found in the top 15 in opportunities. Perhaps a more appropriate listing for fantasy managers with a critical eye is the active career shootout scoring percentage rankings, using a minimum cutoff of 35% and at least 15 goals scored:
1. Vyacheslav Kozlov, 25/44, 56.8%
2. Joe Pavelski, 16/29, 55.2%
3. Erik Christensen, 17/31, 54.8%
4. Wojtek Wolski, 18/33, 54.5%
5. Jussi Jokinen, 26/48, 54.2%
6. Ales Kotalik, 21/40, 52.5%
7. Pavel Datsyuk, 21/41, 51.2%
8. Zach Parise, 20/42, 47.6%
9. Mikko Koivu, 18/40, 45.0%
10. Brad Richards, 18/40, 45.0%
11. Brad Boyes, 16/39, 41.0%
12. Sidney Crosby, 17/44, 38.6%
13. Rick Nash, 16/44, 36.4%
14. Brian Gionta, 15/38, 39.5%
15. Ales Hemsky 16/46, 35.0%
Based on this list therefore, certain players might receive a slight bump in their ADP or relative value because of their increased success in the shootout. On the other end of the spectrum though, former 50 goal scorers such as Vincent Lecavalier (12/41, 29.3%), Ilya Kovalchuk (9/33, 27.3%) and Jarome Iginla (7/25, 28.0%), and other notables such as Evgeni Malkin (5/25, 20.0%) and Alexander Ovechkin (12/42, 28.6%) have all struggled in the one-on-one showdown. Why the difference? There are many potential reasons but the most probable has to do with sheer instinct. The most successful goal scorers in hockey not only have a good skill set to work with, but have that uncanny ability to find an open spot on the ice. Wayne Gretzky summed it up best when he said “it ain’t where the puck is, it’s where it’ll be.” Shootouts negate most of those vital hockey instincts and it therefore goes without saying that it’s very difficult to predict one’s performance in the shootout based on their regulation time statistics. Although there are a few players that have shown a propensity to excel in the shootout, most managers would be wise not to give heavy consideration to one’s shootout performance when assessing draft picks and/or trades. The amount of variability and unpredictability that comes with shootout performances make the category a virtual crapshoot. Nevertheless, there is nothing more exhilarating and dramatic then watching a shootout, and all the more so knowing that you’ve got that player skating down the middle of the rink on your fantasy roster.
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