What Goes Up…

As the old adage goes, what goes up, must come down. It’s an unfortunate reality and one that can be perplexing for fantasy owners, especially at the start of a new season. Players very often will get off to uncharacteristically hot starts, posing a classic dilemma for their fantasy owners: is this guy for real, or will he eventually come crashing back down to Earth? A classic example of this was last year’s version of the Rangers’ Brandon Dubinsky, who started the first 13 games of the season with 12 points, 21 PIM, 4 PPP and 3 GWG. For the month of October, Dubinsky was on top of the fantasy world, and owners were scrambling to pick up the newest hot young talent. Come November however, Dubinsky’s performance tanked – he scored 5 points or less in all but one month for the rest of the year, ending up with a paltry 41 points in 82 games. Those who saw past Dubinsky’s hot start were able to take advantage by trading him away while his stock was still high, perhaps netting a 2nd or 3rd line defenseman in return.

In the 2009-2010 fantasy year, there are several players who have started the season in Dubinsky-esque fashion, but are starting to show signs of cracking as we approach the quarter mark of the season. Here’s a list of who’s the real deal and who you should be looking to trade away:

Dustin Penner, Edmonton – as discussed in a previous column, Penner is a career 50-point player, at best. He started this season extremely hot, posting 19 points in his first 13 games, but has since fallen back to Earth, scoring only four points in eight games. That translates into a 0.5 points-per-game pace, which is roughly in par with his career average, and with what you can expect from him going forward. His numbers are still strong enough to entice a trade with another owner though, so act quickly before the goose-eggs pile up on this guy. One potential trade avenue might even be to try lure the oft-injured Simon Gagne from a disgruntled owner. The upside on Gagne is much bigger than Penner’s, and even though Gagne is injured, you can stash him on your IR and pick up a Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov, Nik Antropov or even Antoine Vermette in the meantime to fill in.

Michael Del Zotto, New York Rangers – congrats if you were sharp enough to catch this guy early on. Del Zotto is a very gifted 19 year-old rookie defenseman who was selected 20th overall in 2008 by the New York Rangers. Del Zotto has excelled at every level he’s played in, having consistently averaged nearly a point per game in the minors, and every indication is that he has a promising NHL career ahead of him. He has 15 points in 20 games with the blue-shirts, and mans the point on the first power play unit, a rarity for rookies – in fact ten of his fifteen points have come on the power play. For the most part, Del Zotto went undrafted in the majority of fantasy pools, which means that he’s likely filling in your roster as a third or fourth defenseman. He’ll have some growing pains to be sure, but a 40-45 point season doesn’t seem too unrealistic for the young blueliner, which, especially in deeper leagues, is a real bonus coming from the depths of your back end. Hold on to this guy, unless someone is willing to overpay.

Ryan Smyth, Los Angeles – this is a tricky one. Smyth has shown flashes of first-line production throughout his career, having approached the point-per-game pace several times throughout his career in Edmonton. He hasn’t been quite the same player of old however since his departure from the Big Oil, but seems rejuvenated playing alongside the league’s scoring leader, Anze Kopitar – in fact, Smyth has been given much of the credit for Kopitar’s explosive start to the season. He has been somewhat injury prone over his career, and isn’t the type of player who can dominate on his own. Paired up with Kopitar however, Smyth may be one to hold on to, especially with the overall lack of fantasy depth at the left wing position. Unless you’re overwhelmed with an offer, hold on to him.

Ryan Malone, Tampa Bay – if you’re ever going to get a chance to show your stuff, you would think playing alongside Sidney Crosby would be that chance. Despite playing alongside one of the greatest players in the league in Sid the Kid, Ryan Malone never scored more than 51 points in his career. Based on that, I’m not confident that Malone’s 19 points in 18 games pace to start the year will last, despite playing alongside Vinny Lecavalier. He’s definitely poised to have a career year, perhaps even around 65 points, but you may be able to sell high for some long-term value, especially perhaps those off to a slower start – Eric Staal, Thomas Vanek, Martin Havlat.

Craig Anderson, Colorado – I’ll start off by saying that this guy is no flash in the pan – I’m definitely not doubting his talent. Nevertheless, a sizzling October (10-2-2, 2.04 GAA, .939 SV%, 2 SO) may have left some fantasy owners expecting too much out of the Avalanche goalie. Colorado was picked by most this year to compete with Phoenix for the worst record in the Western conference, which makes it a tough environment for any goaltender to excel. Anderson has shown in his days with the Panthers that he is capable of carrying the load on a poor team, so his numbers should still be good, but don’t expect his hot start to go on forever, especially in terms of wins. In fact, November has been a much tougher month for Anderson, going 1-3-1 with a 3.53 GAA and a .883 SV% thus far. His numbers should bounce back to something more respectable however, and he may even finish among the top 10 goalies by year end. I’d be perfectly happy keeping Anderson as my number one goalie, provided he is paired with a goalie that can provide some additional win support, but I would nevertheless keep my ears open for anyone looking to overpay for Colorado’s hot, but unsustainable, start.