Goaltending is arguably the most important position on any fantasy hockey roster. There is no other position in which two or three players control four categories (W, GAA, SV%, SO) in their entirety. Suffice to say therefore, that just as in the professional game, you can’t win without goaltending. It’s no surprise then that in many drafts, most of the truly elite goaltenders disappear by the end of the second round. Perhaps more surprising though, is the amount of unpredictability and turnover that exists for fantasy goaltending outside of the elite class. For example, consider the list of the top ten fantasy goaltenders from the following seasons (Yahoo! rankings):

1. Henrik Lundqvist, New York

2. Martin Brodeur, New Jersey

3. Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose

4. Pascal Leclaire, Columbus

5. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Anaheim

6. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver

7. Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota

8. Cristobal Huet, Montreal

9. Dan Ellis, Nashville

10. Martin Biron, Philadelphia

1. Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota

2. Tim Thomas, Boston

3. Steve Mason, Columbus

4. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver

5. Cam Ward, Carolina

6. Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose

7. Tomas Vokoun, Florida

8. Pekka Rinne, Nashville

9. Henrik Lundqvist, New York

10. Ryan Miller, Buffalo

It might surprise you to learn, that only one goaltender has appeared in the top ten of fantasy goaltenders in each of the past three years: Evgeni Nabokov. Furthermore, only five of this year’s top ten goaltenders appeared in last year’s top ten: Ryan Miller, Evgeni Nabokov, Tim Thomas, Tomas Vokoun and Pekka Rinne. What’s especially interesting is how some names can disappear entirely from one year to another. For example, J.S Giguere went from one of the league’s top goalies in 2007, and a Conn Smythe winner at that, to a backup goalie one year later. Pascal Leclaire, who had a dominating year in 2007 with nine shutouts, ended up losing his starting job the following year to an upstart rookie, Steve Mason, who despite a stellar performance in ‘08-’09, went on to disappear one year late. Similar scenarios can be painted for Cristobal Huet (8th in ‘07, 22nd in ‘08), Dan Ellis (9th in ‘07, backup in ‘08 and ‘09), Martin Biron (soon to be 3rd stringer for the Islanders, of all teams) and Cam Ward (5th overall in ‘08 to simply ugly in ‘09). Add to the mix the lengthy injuries that have plagued elite goaltenders such as Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur over the past couple of years and it’s clear that goaltending is not the sure-fire draft pick many consider it to be.

So what does this mean for your fantasy hockey strategy? Two things: firstly, there are very few goaltenders that, on draft day, you can count on for 35+ wins, a .915 SV%, a 2.40 or less GAA and 5+ shutouts. History has shown that it’s extremely difficult to deliver elite performances on a consistent basis – only one goaltender, and perhaps a few more if we loosen the criteria (Brodeur, Lundqvist and Luongo) qualify as truly elite netminders. Secondly, and conversely, the amount of unpredictability in the yearly constituency of the top ten goalie list proves that there is no need to panic if you don’t get a truly elite goaltender in the first round. In fact, three of this year’s top ten goalies are nowhere to be found in previous years’ top ten: Ilya Bryzgalov, Craig Anderson and Ray Emery.

So if you don’t get an “elite” goaltender don’t panic – there are always diamonds to be found in the rough. Conversely, if you’re drafting outside of the elite class of goaltenders, do yourself a favour and at least ensure that the goalie you are drafting is playing on a solid team and has a few years of reputable experience under his belt, to minimize the chance of a drafting a dud. Once you’ve got a set of reliable goalies however, go ahead and take a flyer on a Craig Anderson or a Jonas Hiller. Often it’s those “out-of-nowhere” picks that end up making the biggest difference.