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Fantasy Hockey Surprises

Fantasy Hockey Surprises

Every year there are players who rise from the depths of the mediocrity world to deliver a first-round performance. Last year, Zach Parise rewarded owners who spent a mid-round pick on him with a 45-goal, 94-point performance, which ranked him third in overall fantasy scoring, behind only Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. Also, Jeff Carter delivered an all-star performance last year with 46 goals and 84 points, a 31-point improvement from his previous year.
Although it’s still early to call out the definitive surprises of 2009-2010 there are a few early candidates that are paying big rewards for those sharp enough to spot them:
1. Anze Kopitar – although he’s no dud, Kopitar regressed to a dissapointing 66-point season in 2008-2009, with a dismal -17 plus/minus rating, after showing all the promise of an elite player in 2007-2008. That regression left many to wonder if he would ever live up to his promising potential. Invigorated with the addition of his new linemate Ryan Smyth (who was also enjoying a great start prior to injury), Kopitar is paying huge dividends to owners that drafted him in the middle rounds by delivering a first round performance. He’s currently tied for the league lead in points (33) with Joe Thornton and Marian Gaborik and provides balanced value in both goals (14) and assists (19). What’s more impressive is his +4 plus/minus rating, which although it may not sound like much, is quite a turnaround for a player who was a career -44 over his first three years. He’s tailed off a bit since Smyth’s injury, but, assuming Smyth returns within the next 2-3 weeks, all indications are that he will return to his point-per-game pace for the remainder of 2009-2010.
2. Vaclav Prospal – perhaps this guy is a surprise, or perhaps he isn’t. Since 2002-2003, Prospal has almost predictably alternated great seasons of nearly a point-per-game pace with disappointing 50-point seasons. Last year Prospal scored a dismal 45 points in 82 games with a gut-wrenching -20 plus/minus rating. This year? 24 points in 24 games, with eight of those on the power play. Playing alongside fellow Czech Marian Gaborik has seemed to invigorate his game, as the two have made for probably the most potent linemates in the league. In smaller 8-team leagues Prospal went undrafted in many cases, or at best was taken with a late-round pick. His performance thus far has him ranked 39th overall according to Yahoo!. However, Prospal’s best upside is also his biggest downside: playing with Gaborik, a player who’s missed an average of more than 25 games per year for the last five years. If Gaborik goes out for an extended period of time, Prospal’s performance may be headed for another nosedive. Until then, enjoy the ride.
3. Dustin Penner – remember this guy? Penner was at the center of a controversial five-year, $21.25 million offer-sheet signing in 2007 by Kevin Lowe, one which the then-general-manager Brian Burke called “gutless”.  Penner didn’t quite live up to his billing his first two years in Edmonton with 47 and 37 point performances in 2007 and 2008, respectively. This year however he has been firing on all cylinders with 26 points in 26 games. Remarkably, 17 of his 26 points have come at even strength, which also accounts for his strong +10 plus/minus rating. Penner has never posted a season of 50 points or more, so take his hot start with a grain of salt – consider that his trade value has never been higher, and he’s not exactly surrounded with superstars in Edmonton either, so you may want to test the market with him. Nevertheless, congrats to those who snagged this guy early on as he’s been delivering a top-10 performance thus far.
4. Rene Bourque – If asked who the Flames’ leading scorer was during the first two months of the season, most would pick Jarome Iginla without hesitation. Surprisingly however, that esteem actually belonged to winger Rene Bourque up until his injury last week. Despite having played several years in the league with Chicago, Bourque only really caught the attention of the hockey world in December 2008, and since then, and into this season, he’s scored 49 points in 54 games. All this while playing on the number two line. He also adds some toughness (31 PIM) and special teams points (2 SHG thus far, and 7 SHP in 2007-2008) to your team as an added boost. He definitely looks like he’s for real, and when he returns, it may only be a matter of time until he gets bumped up to the top line with Jarome Iginla.
5. Steven Stamkos – if you looked past his 46 point performance last year, you would have noticed that Stamkos finished the year with 19 points in 20 games. This year Stamkos has picked up where he left off with 26 points in 22 games, and is tied for the team-lead in goals with 15. He hasn’t been fazed with the bump of St.Louis off of his line to help the slumping Lecavalier either, and based on his performance last year he looks to be a solid contributor for years to come. In fact, a resurgent Lecavalier will only help Stamkos’ performance as opposing teams will be forced to concentrate on shutting down Lecavalier, leaving Stamkos free to roam. Stamkos entered the season ranked 89 in Yahoo! player rankings but has risen to 12th overall with his play, with the potential to rise much higher as he continues to mature.
Only time will tell if these surprises are indeed sustainable, or if they’re simply waiting to crash back to Earth. Either way if you own these players you stand to win: ride that mid-to-late round pick for a full year’s worth of benefits, or sell high and maximize your gains with a proven, sustainable scorer.

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