Categorized | Fantasy, Hockey

Between the Pipes: Toronto

 Toronto -

One of the highlight signings for Toronto’s Brian Burke in the offseason was Jonas Gustavsson, a 24 year old netminder out of the Swedish Elite League. Without having played even a single game in North America, Gustavsson had captured the envy of nearly every team in the league this past summer, and with good reason – his play for Farjestad of the Elitserien League was nothing short of outstanding, having posted a 1.96 GAA and .932 save percentage in 42 games in one of the most skilled leagues outside of the NHL. Fast forward to the present day, and it seems as if Gustavsson, also nicknamed ‘The Monster’, is starting to live up to his billing.

Despite a slow start by the Leafs this year, Gustavsson has an impressive 2.60 GAA and .918 save percentage. He has played especially well in the last three games, posting a 2-0-1 record, a 1.65 GAA and .951 save percentage. Two of those wins did come against the lowly Lightning and Hurricanes, but he proved that was no fluke by following that up with a stellar performance in a 5-1 win against Detroit the following night. What’s especially of note to fantasy players is that Gustavsson seems to have pried away the starting goaltending duties from veteran Vesa Toskala, who has struggled to start the season. Head coach Ron Wilson told reporters yesterday that he doesn’t see any reason to change goaltenders with Gustavsson playing so well and the team winning again. Although the Leafs won’t win many games this year, Gustavsson could turn out to be a solid third goalie for your team, and perhaps even surprise on the upside – the Leafs defense going into the year was considered to be among the deeper ones in the league, and, despite an awful start, seems to be coming together. This should translate into more low-scoring games which will definitely boost your GAA and SV%. Gustavsson is available in over 70% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues, so if you’re willing to take a risk, this might be your guy.
For fantasy owners, the second half of the Gustavsson saga is Vesa Toskala. Surely, Brian Burke didn’t fly to Europe on four different occasions simply to sign himself a backup goaltender – Gustavsson is clearly being groomed as the Leafs’ future number one goalie, which is likely why he chose to sign with Toronto in the first place. That begs the question: what does the future hold for Vesa Toskala? In an ideal situation, the Leafs would have liked Gustavsson to play 25-30 games this year, and have him learn from the veteran Toskala, before taking over the reins in 2010, when Toskala’s contract expires. In fact, in the most optimistic scenario, if Gustavsson was to surprise on the upside, which it seems like he is doing, the Leafs would be in the bonus position of dangling Toskala as trade bait to a team desperate for some goaltending help entering the playoffs. Toskala however, has been downright awful over the past year and into this season, posting a 5.13 GAA and .836 SV% in his first 5 games, which is why he is riding the pine while The Monster starts between the pipes.
Does Toskala therefore have any trade value? The Leafs are certainly trying to paint the picture that he does, which is why Burke has referred to him all season as their “number one goalie”, despite his struggles. Rumors are now surfacing that Toronto is in talks with Anaheim on a potential backup goalie swap that would bring Giguere to Toronto, reuniting him with former goaltending coach Francois Allaire, in exchange for a package involving Vesa Toskala. Giguere would likely serve as the number one goalie (and mentor for Gustavsson) in Toronto, whereas Toskala would likely serve as a capable backup to Jonas Hiller. Also, one can’t ignore the dire goaltending situation in Detroit either, with both Osgood and Howard struggling out of the gate. Toskala certainly showed in his days with the Sharks that he can be an effective starting goaltender if surrounded with talent, and could form an effective platoon with Chris Osgood. The Red Wings don’t have a lot of wiggle room in their cap however, but could potentially package a mid-round pick together with an expiring salary for the Leafs netminder.
Surely, there are countless other teams that could use a veteran backup in Toskala. As poorly as he is playing right now, he may have better days ahead of him, especially if he goes to a contending team with a solid defense. For the time being however, the Leafs will likely try and boost his value going into the spring before trading him, and until then you can probably find worthier 3rd goalie candidates in Antero Nittymaki (Tampa Bay), Anti Niemi (Chicago), Jaroslav Halak (Montreal) and Tuukka Rask (Boston). Go ahead and cut him, but keep your eyes peeled in the coming weeks and months though as an opportunity may emerge for Toskala elsewhere.
Other Player News
Cam Ward, Carolina - Ward is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a leg laceration suffered against Columbus on November 7. The Hurricanes have called up former Blues and Red Wings goalie Manny Legace to fill in for the injured netminder, on a team with the worst record in the NHL. Legace is by no means a number one goalie anymore either, but he’s played long enough in the NHL that he may be worth a flyer in deeper leagues. The ‘Canes are not as bad as they currently look and should improve once Staal returns, meaning that Legace could have some short-term upside.
David Clarkson, New Jersey - This guy has never been much more than a goon, amassing an average of 174 PIM and 26 points in the past two seasons. This year however Clarkson is showing some offensive flair, with 13 points in 16 games and 2 game-winning goals, to go along with 31 PIM. Clarkson is skating alongside Patrik Elias on the Devils’ second line and is even getting some powerplay time – he’s in fact chipped in 5 points on the man advantage thus far, and over the past month is rated number 30 on the Yahoo! player rankings. Sean Avery fantasy owners from 2007-2008 will remember how valuable he was as a big source of PIM while still contributing offensively, and it looks like Clarkson could be that guy this year. If you’ve got some room go and grab him.
Bobby Ryan, Anaheim – After scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace in his rookie year, Ryan got off to a slow start this season, prompting many to question if Ryan was falling victim to the classic sophomore slump. Not so, as Ryan has reeled off 9 points in his past 7 games and looks to be picking up where he left off. Playing on a line with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf certainly doesn’t hurt either – if you can sneak in a trade for him while it’s early, go for it.
Martin Havlat, Chicago – Entering Tuesday’s match, Havlat was on pace for 6 goals and 40 points. What do you do if you, like me, wasted a mid-round pick on this guy? Havlat is too good to play this poorly the entire season, but his -12 plus/minus rating is killing you while you’re waiting for his production to return. The website Hockey Wilderness has some interesting sabermetric analysis on this guy: Havlat this year is a paltry 0-30 five-on-five from an average distance of 29.4 feet. Last year he was 21-210 from 30.4 feet (10.0%). The year before? 7-71 from 25.2 feet (9.9%). What does this mean? Either he’s totally lost his game, or he’s the world’s unluckiest forward right now. Odds are that this trend won’t continue and that Havlat will return to the statistical mean. If you’ve got other options on right wing, bench him and wait for a recovery, or try and see what you can get in a trade for him – his name should still carry some value despite the slow start.
Peter Forsberg, Sweden – Here we go again. The rumors of a Forsberg return to the NHL are once again swirling, especially after Flyers GM Paul Holmgren supposedly expressed formal interest Forsberg’s agent about bringing the talented Swede back to the NHL.  Forsberb however is still nowhere near NHL game-shape and felt that he needs some more time to bring himself up to par with his conditioning.  In all likelihood, and barring any injury (a definite risk here), look for Forsberg to re-join the NHL sometime in January, following in the footsteps of fellow Europeans Teemu Selanne and Mats Sundin from a few years ago.

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