Basic Economics: Buy Low, Sell High

We’re all familiar with one of the most basic principles of economics: buy low, sell high. In fantasy hockey, the same premise applies to player transactions – knowing when to pick up, or get rid of, certain players is the key for achieving success.

So who are this year’s buy low/sell-high candidates? Here’s a few:

1. Eric Staal, Carolina – BUY LOW: Eric Staal owners from last year will recall that Staal’s fantasy performance only really took off when Cole returned to the Hurricanes in a late-season trade with the Oilers. Following that trade, Staal reeled off 25 points in 18 games, after spending the first 64 games scoring meager 50 points. This year, Staal has once again sputtered out of the gate with 5 points in his first 13 games – not surprisingly though, Erik Cole was out of action for most of those first 13 games with an injury. With a healthy Cole returning to the lineup on Monday, expect to see Eric Staal bounce back to his high-scoring ways. Unfortunately, Staal suffered an upper-body injury a few days ago that will keep him out of the lineup for a week or two, but this may in fact create the perfect opportunity to snatch Cole from a frustrated owner. He can likely be had for a number two center, or an overachiever (see below).

2. Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit – BUY LOW: in this case, we’re not talking about someone who has been a complete dud coming out of the gate. Pavel has a very respectable 10 points in his first 10 games, but for a player that came off back-to-back 97 point seasons, and was selected on average 10th overall, some owners may be getting impatient and expect more out of their first round pick. However, there is good reason to think that his performance will shift into high gear very shortly: first, Datsyuk has been struggling with an injury to start the season, but seems to be turning the corner with that and skating well again. Secondly, in an effort to stimulate his team, coach Mike Babcock has reunited Datsyuk with Zetterberg, a combination which has been lethal in previous years and is certain to explode once again. Finally, Detroit GM Ken Holland mentioned in a recent radio interview that the team’s strategy at the start of the season was to reduce the workload of their top guns in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs. This plan for reduced ice-time has backfired however, as the Wings have suffered injury after injury, and have floundered out of the gate, currently sitting 11th (gasp!) in the Western Conference. As a result, expect to see a return to the norm for the Red Wings’ guns, as they push to reclaim their throne atop the conference. All this should bode well for Datsyuk, but the window to trade for him is quickly closing.

3. Matt Stajan, Toronto – BUY LOW: ordinarily, I wouldn’t recommend any Leafs player but I think we might have an exception here, especially for deeper leagues. Matt Stajan showed some promise as a playmaker last year with 40 assists in 76 games, much of that on a line with a rejuvenated Jason Blake.This year the Leafs have added 36-goal scorer Phil Kessel to their lineup , who expects to make his Leafs debut on Tuesday after recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. Matt Stajan stands to benefit the most from this, as he is now flanked by two proven scorers on either side and should get lots of playing time as the Leafs only real offensive line. He should be good for 60-65 points, along with a 50-60 PIM.

4. Dustin Penner, Edmonton – SELL HIGH: this is a screaming sell. Although Penner has never posted more than 47 points in any of his previous four years, he’s started off this year on fire, with 19 points in his first 13 games. Furthermore, his career shooting percentage is in the range of 12%, much lower than the 19% clip he is currently sniping at. Neither of those trends seem likely to continue, especially on an Edmonton team that isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. In fact, 9 of Penner’s 19 points have come in two games, which has resulted in a significant padding of his statistics. Indeed, aside from a 4 point outburst against Detroit on October 29, Penner has been held pointless in 4 of his last 5 games. He is definitely a sell candidate and can perhaps net you a solid defenseman in return.

5. Matt Carle, Philadelphia – SELL HIGH: Carle has 12 points in his first 12 games with the Flyers this year, with a plus-11 rating and 8 PIM. 7 of those points have come in 2 games, leaving him with 5 points in his remaining 10 games. I think that the latter stats are more indicative of his future performance, especially given the latest injuries to sniper Simon Gagne and Daniel Briere. Carle posted 26 points last year and although a 40 point season seems likely, his current pace is unsustainable. Look to package him in a trade to a team thin on blue liners while he’s hot.